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- By Christopher Baker
- 14 Sep 2026
Tropical Storm Melissa is forecast to strengthen into a rare highest-level cyclone as it turns towards Jamaica, delivering life-threatening rapid inundation and mudslides.
This weather system, which registered wind speeds of up to 120 mph as of 6:00 AM GMT, is now shifting toward the northwest in the Caribbean region and is expected to reach land by midweek, based on data from weather experts.
Alerts of blackouts and disruption to utilities have been issued as this storm brings up to 76cm of precipitation and storm surges as high as 4m above ground. "Find safe refuge immediately," inhabitants have been advised.
The cyclone is the thirteenth hurricane in the current Atlantic storm period, which usually concludes in November.
A category five cyclone is the strongest type, with winds of at least 157mph.
Although this storm is set to weaken to a category four cyclone before reaching the island, meteorologists said there was "minimal real distinction in the general consequences" upon reaching the coast, and that the cyclone will be "at least that intensity" when it impacts the nation.
With storm-force winds and rain predicted to begin ahead of it moves across the island's interior - possibly even the capital, Kingston - advisories indicate that "safety measures need to be finalized quickly".
"Several days of destructive gusts and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause severe and deadly sudden floods and many landslides," urged weather authorities.
The nation's leader Andrew Holness stated: "I realize that there are many Jamaicans who are concerned, who are very concerned, and with good reason: concern is justified.
"However the most effective method to address nervousness and any apprehension and concern is to remain prepared."
Residents are being instructed to secure their homes with sand barriers and timber panels, and to stock up on essentials.
Warnings are also active for parts of Haiti encompassing the main city, Port au Prince, the adjacent nation and Cuba's eastern region, where Melissa is anticipated to bring similar effects by the middle of next week.
Landslides currently triggered by the cyclone have already killed two in the country, according to the nation's Civil Protection agency.
This weather system is predicted to move across Cuba by midweek before moving through the Caribbean archipelago and emerging into the open ocean.
By the moment it makes contact with Cuba, it is predicted to have diminished to a Category 3 cyclone.
While it is hard to associate particular meteorological occurrences to environmental shifts, researchers say it is resulting in weather phenomena increasingly frequent and more extreme.
Increased sea temperatures generate additional humidity in the air, contributing to the development of tropical cyclones.
Ahead of the beginning of this season's Caribbean cyclone season, meteorological authorities forecast higher-than-average occurrence, mentioning warmer seas and possible stronger monsoon activity around West Africa - where tropical systems frequently develop.
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